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Being Closer to the ‘Oh Darn’ Inflation Strike

The time period between spikes of inflation angst seems to be shortening. I am not sure yet about the amplitude of those spikes of angst, but the concern seems to be quickening.

This is not without reason as it seems that concerning headlines are occurring with more frequency. This week the Bloomberg Commodity Index again challenged the 2016 and 2017 highs before backing off today (see chart, source Bloomberg).

Somewhat more alarming than that, to people who watch commodities, is how the commodity indices are rallying. The culprits are energy as well as industrial metals, and each has an interesting story to tell. Energy has been rallying partly because of global tensions, but also partly because US shale oil production appears to be running into some bottlenecks on production (wages, shortages of frack sand) as well as delivery (capacity constraints on pipelines), and part of what has kept a lid on energy prices over the last couple of years was the understanding that shale oil production was improving rapidly and becoming lots more efficient due to improved technology. If shale is limited, the ‘lid’ on prices is not as binding as we had thought. On industrial metals, some of the upward pressure has been due to fallout from US sanctions on Rusal, a major supplier of aluminum and alumina. Since those sanctions were announced, aluminum prices have risen around 25%, and alumina (a raw input to aluminum production) about 50%, with knock-on effects in other industrial metals.

Both of these items bear on the market’s recent fears about new pressures on inflation – capacity constraints (especially rising wages for long-haul truckers) and potential fracturing of the global trade détente.

And 10-year breakevens are at new 4-year highs, although it is worth remembering that this is nowhere near the 10-year highs (see chart, source Bloomberg).

Shorter inflation swaps look less alarming, and not at new four-year highs. However, even here the news is not really soothing. The reason that shorter inflation swaps are lower than they have been in the past is because the energy curves are in backwardation – meaning that the market is pricing in lower energy process in the future. In turn, this means that implied core inflation – once we strip out these energy effects – are, in fact, at 4-year highs (see chart, source Enduring Investments).

So there is legitimate cause to be concerned about upside risks to inflation, and that’s one reason the market is a bit jumpier in this regard. But there is also additional premium, volatility, and angst associated with the level of inflation itself. While as I have pointed out before much of the rise in core inflation to date due to optics arising from base effects, that doesn’t change the fact that the ‘oh, rats’ strike is closer now. That is to say that when core inflation is running at 1.5%, stuff can go wrong without hurting you if your pain threshold is at 3%. But when core inflation is at 2.5% (as it will be this summer), not as much “bad stuff” needs to happen to cause financial pain. In other words, both the ‘delta’ and the ‘gamma’ of the exposure is higher now – just as if one were short a call option struck at (say) 3% inflation. Because, implicitly, many investors are.

If inflation is low, then even if it is volatile in a range it can be consistent with high market valuations for stocks and bonds. But when inflation starts to creep above 3%, those markets tend to suffer in non-linear fashion.

And this, I believe, is why the market’s nervousness about inflation (and market volatility resulting from that nervousness) is unlikely to soon abate.

  1. April 19, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    At least the Fed will be happy! Finally getting that inflation back above their target so they can run ‘hot’ for a while. What could possibly go wrong!

  2. April 19, 2018 at 7:38 pm

    It’s interesting that inflation expectations never seem to rise above 2.6% but deflation fears can send the breakeven plummeting. What is your view of the flat yield curve? That would seem to be predicting recession and lower inflation, but at the same time inflation expectations have been rising. I did an analysis (journalistic, not scientific) about how accurate inflation expectations are. Turns out, not so accurate … https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086587-tips-inflation-break-even-rate-accurately-predict-future-inflation

    • April 19, 2018 at 10:21 pm

      Yes, I don’t place any weight on the market’s predictions – of pretty much anything. But especially when the market is being manipulated by a central bank holding trillions. It isn’t like the market price is the free market price!

  3. William J Lyons III
    April 19, 2018 at 8:57 pm

    Great stuff Mike. Thank you.

  4. TW
    April 20, 2018 at 10:50 am

    Interesting MS piece earlier in the week argued shale oil output is wrong type (too light) for US refiners to use without blending with heavier crudes, supply of which is becoming harder to get (because of Vene, I would guess). Certainly fits with recent moves in WCS/WTI spread. Anyway, this all suggests shale might not hold down gas prices the way people might expect.

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